Friday, May 8, 2020

Vietnam’s trade still saw a surplus of US $ 3 billion in the first four months

Vietnam's trade still saw a surplus of US $ 3 billion in the first four months

Vietnam announced a trade surplus of about US $ 3 billion in the first four months of 2020, up 3.4% from the same period last year, according to the latest statistics from the General Statistics Office.

Vietnam records trade surplus of over 3 billion USD

Once broken, the domestic investment sector is estimated to have a trade deficit of US $ 7.1 billion over a four-month period while foreign-invested companies record a trade surplus of 10.1 billion. U.S. dollar.

Exports of domestic companies are estimated to have increased by 12.1% over the same period to US $ 26.45 billion in the period, accounting for 31.9% of the country’s export. Meanwhile, FDI enterprises gained US $ 56.49 billion from foreign shipments, increasing by 1.5% and accounting for 68.1% of the total.

In April alone, Vietnam’s exports and imports reached US $ 19.7 billion and US $ 20.4 billion, down 18.4% and 7.9%, respectively, compared to the previous month.

Viet Nam enjoys a trade surplus of US$3 billion in the first four months of 2020, according to the General Statistics Office
Viet Nam enjoys a trade surplus of US$3 billion in the first four months of 2020, according to the General Statistics Office (Photo: chinhphu)

Overall, Vietnam’s trade turnover may reach USD 162.83 billion during the period from January to April, up 3.4% from the same period last year, of which its export value may be amounted to 82.94 billion USD, up 4.7% compared to the previous year, and imports were estimated at 79.89 billion USD, up 2.1%, as reported by vietstock

During the review period, 15 items participated in the USD 1 billion export club, accounting for 80.1% of the total export value.

Increasing concerns about the possibility of trade suspension in major markets of Vietnam due to the Covid-19 pandemic, local companies have stepped up import and export activities in the last 10 days of March. , Samsung completed exporting its new smartphone.

As a result, phones and parts are expected to have the largest export revenue of all exports between January and April at US $ 16.2 billion, up 1.1% from over the same period and account for 19.5% of Vietnam’s total exports.

VGP has reported that important export items of Vietnam include phones and accessories ($ 16.2 billion), electronics, computers and spare parts ($ 12.4 billion), apparel (8. , $ 9 billion), machinery, equipment and tools ($ 6.9 billion), footwear ($ 5.5 billion), wood and wood products ($ 3.4 billion), vehicles and tools tools (US $ 2.7 billion) and fishery products (US $ 2.2 billion).

In addition, electronic products, computers and components earned about 12.4 billion USD, up 28.6% over the previous year; garments with 8.9 billion USD, down 5.8%; equipment and spare parts with US $ 6.9 billion, up 29.6%; footwear with US $ 5.5 billion, up 1.3%; wood and wooden products with US $ 3.4 billion, up 10.1%; means of transport with US $ 2.7 billion, down 3.9%; seafood with US $ 2.2 billion, down 8.5%, among others.

The US remained Vietnam’s largest importer for four months with 20.3 billion USD, up 13.4%. Followed by China (13.1 billion USD), EU (10.7 billion USD), ASEAN (8.2 billion USD), Japan (6.7 billion USD) and South Korea (6.2 billion USD). .

China was the largest exporter of Vietnam in four months with 22.7 billion USD, down 0.1%, followed by South Korea (15.5 billion USD), ASEAN (9.9 billion USD), Japan. Japan (US $ 6.4 billion), US (US) US $ 4.7 billion) and EU US $ 4.5

Source: GOV

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Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Foreign groups have stepped up their plans to penetrate or expand in Vietnam

Foreign groups have stepped up their plans to penetrate or expand in Vietnam

While China is struggling with the pandemic and is losing the confidence of foreign investors, its resilience has been proven to make Vietnam an ideal investment and production center for Southeast Asia.

Vietnam has been chosen as the ideal destination for HZO policy, a US-based company, a US-based company that produces protective nano coatings with a notice of opening a production facility. first production in Vietnam in Yen Phong Industrial Zone, the northern province of Bac Ninh.

The country is also rumored to be Apple’s next destination, the iconic U.S. multinational technology for consumer electronics, computer software and online services. Recently, gigantic recruitment announcements are listed in Vietnam on LinkedIn, including a chief executive position based in Hanoi and test engineers in Ho Chi Minh City.

These job announcements add credibility to reports that Apple can increase manufacturing outsourcing for Vietnam, while Foxconn, the world’s largest electronics contract manufacturer and main supplier. Apple, also has a base in Bac Ninh to produce for the technology giant.

Sharing the same trend, other US giants such as Google, Microsoft, HP and Dell have also announced their plans to settle in Vietnam. While Google asked suppliers to calculate the cost of moving some devices from China to Vietnam via road, sea and air after considering the impact of coronavirus on the operation of themselves, Microsoft aims to launch its latest Surface computers and laptops in the country.

HP and Dell are also expected to transfer up to 30% of their notebook computers to Vietnam.

As China gradually loses priority in global production, large-scale international manufacturers are adopting policies to expand China + 1 – with Vietnam emerging as a clear alternative. Clearly in many reviews.

China dominates decline

In a report published last week, global manufacturing consulting firm Kearney pointed out that China is increasingly losing stakes from American companies during the Trump administration, and the main beneficiary of this. are smaller Southeast Asian countries. Along with American companies, this move has also happened to businesses from other major economies.

The coronavirus has stagnated production and logistics worldwide, especially exposing the holes of Japanese companies dependent on China for more than 20% of their spare parts and materials needs. Japan has prepared 240 billion yen (2.23 billion USD) in subsidies for fiscal year 2020 for companies moving production out of China. Consumer product maker Iris Ohyama is set to become the first Japanese company to receive government subsidies to move production out of China as part of a more flexible supply chain effort.

A survey from credit reporting and marketing firm Tokyo Shoko Search Co., Ltd., said 37% of the 2,600 businesses asked to leave China.

Since the start of the US-China trade war, Japanese electronics maker Sharp has been planning to shift production of computers from China to Vietnam to ship goods to the US. According to Japanese TV channel NHK, Sharp is also considering shifting production of multifunctional office equipment to Thailand instead of China.

Meanwhile, it is reported that Nintendo, one of the largest video game developers based in Japan, will also pull part of console production from China to Vietnam.

Across the pond, European leaders and businesses have also considered such moves to reduce their dependence on the Chinese market. Last week, EU Trade Commissioner Phil Philan said the bloc would try to reduce our trade reliance after a pandemic.

Meanwhile, British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab, representing Prime Minister Boris Johnson when he recovered from coronavirus, spoke of economic relations with China, there was no doubt that we could not do business as usual. after the recent crisis after a phone call with G7 leaders.

Raab explained that the pandemic taught the UK the value and importance of cooperation and that the UK could not depend solely on China.

Last year’s US-China trade war triggered the trend of moving production lines from China to Southeast Asia and other markets, but the virus outbreak reaffirmed the risk of supply chain disruption. when the world economy depends too much on a big market.

Vietnam is currently highly appreciated by the international community for strong and timely actions to respond to pandemics while maintaining economic growth momentum and ensuring social security.

In addition, various support packages to rescue the business community, including foreign-invested enterprises, have emerged as a new driving force of foreign capital inflows into Vietnam after the pandemic ended. end.

Members of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) welcome government restrictions, including Directive No. 11 / CT-TOT of March 4, which directs urgent tasks and solutions to address them. solving difficulties of production and business establishments, extending tax payment time limits and paying land rents, and suspending social insurance payment.

About 75% of businesses surveyed by EuroCham agree that extending tax payments will help them overcome pandemic difficulties.

Minimize losses

According to Ousmane Dione, Country Director of the World Bank in Vietnam, if the COVID-19 pandemic is gradually under control in the coming months, Vietnam’s economy will recover relatively quickly thanks to a solid foundation.

The World Bank also believes that the Vietnamese government is determined to curb economic losses from the crisis by taking necessary preventive and treatment measures, in addition to providing financial policies to support the majority of people and businesses to cope with the immediate burden.

In addition, the latest market report of real estate services firm JLL shows that companies that want to diversify their production portfolio outside of China are attracted to Vietnam thanks to its proximity to China, Free trade agreement and the government’s desire to build Vietnam into a manufacturing center in Southeast Asia. These comments are a plus in the eyes of foreign businesses planning to relocate facilities or expand operations outside of China, the report noted.

Shirakawa Satoko, head of English and English speaking businesses of Kizuna JV Corporation, said foreign investment inflows will pour into Vietnam after the pandemic if the country can minimize the damage. The company has accelerated the construction of ready-made space in the Mekong Delta province, Long An Giuoc district with the scale of 80,000 square meters. The construction is expected to end in the fourth quarter of the year to welcome foreign investment, Sat Satoko said.

Asia Times quoted Alexander Vuving, professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Daniel K. Inouye in Honolulu, Hawaii, saying the pandemic was a great opportunity for Vietnam to strengthen its soft power, because It helps broadcast generous behavior towards the international community.

Many analysts are now expecting Vietnam to get the lion’s share of the second wave factory moving group, due to the growing pandemic and anti-China sentiment in the west driven by the perception that China Quoc is primarily responsible for the outbreak.

“Vietnam benefits greatly from this diversification because it’s friendly, while still saving costs for investors from the west” Mr. Vuving said. ‘In many cases, Vietnam will be their first choice when they look around for a reliable alternative.”

Source: VIR

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Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Economists: Vietnam is among the safe economies after COVID-19

Vietnam-is-among-the-safe-economies-after-COVID-19-lookofice.vn

Vietnam has been listed as the 12th strongest economy, according to The Economist’s report, on the financial strength of 66 emerging economies after the collapse of COVID-19.

the economist vietnam among safe economies in wake of covid 19

The rankings look at the vulnerability of selected economies on four potential sources of risk – public debt, external debt and the cost of borrowing and contingency insurance.

The economist calculated their likely foreign payments this year (current account deficit plus their foreign debt payments) and compared this to the foreign exchange reserves of surname. The national ranking on each of these indicators is then averaged to determine its overall position.

Vietnam is in a safe group thanks to strong and stable financial indicators.

Accordingly, quite 30 emerging economies face great pressure, the worst being Lebanon and Venezuela.

Botswana tops the list of safe economies, followed by Taiwan (China) and South Korea.

Economists think most economies are strong enough to survive a pandemic. The 30 weakest economies are relatively small, accounting for only 11% of the GDP of 66 economies.

It says COVID-19 hurts emerging economies by locking down their population, damaging their export earnings and discouraging foreign capital.

Even if the pandemic disappears in the second half of this year, GDP in developing countries, measured by purchasing power levels, will be 6.6% smaller than the IMF forecast in October, the report said.

Source: VNA

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Monday, April 27, 2020

[NEWS] Foreign investment in Vietnam continues to grow despite the pandemic

Foreign investment in Vietnam continues to grow despite covid-19 pandemic

Total foreign direct investment into Vietnam reached US $ 12.33 billion in the first four months of this year, down 14.5% over the same period due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Investment. Investment Agency (FIA).

The figure, however, is much higher than the same period in 2018 and 2017 with $ 5.8 billion and $ 9.2 billion, respectively, the FIA said.

The four-month period witnessed 984 newly licensed foreign investment projects with a total registered capital of 6.78 billion USD, down 9% in the number of projects but up 27% in annual value.

Among them, the powerful LNG project of Lieu Lieu marked the first billion-dollar project in 2020 with an investment of US $ 4 billion, accounting for 59% of the total registered FDI.

Meanwhile, the current 335 projects are allowed to increase investment capital more than 3.07 billion USD, up 46% over the same period last year.

From January to April, foreign investors spent nearly $ 2 billion to buy shares or contribute capital to Vietnamese companies, down 65% from the previous year.
According to the agency, disbursement of foreign investment reached 5.15 billion USD after 4 months or equivalent to 90.4% last year.

Foreign investors committed to pouring capital into 18 fields, of which manufacturing and processing led with nearly 6 billion USD, accounting for 48.4% of total capital. Next is electricity production and distribution (US $ 3.9 billion); wholesale and retail (776 million USD); and real estate ($ 665 million), the FIA said.

Singapore is the country with the largest FDI source because the committed volume accounts for 41% or 5.07 billion USD. Thailand and Japan are runner-ups with $ 1.46 billion and $ 1.16 billion respectively, followed by mainland China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Of the 54 provinces that received foreign investment over a four-month period, the southern Liaoning Province ranked first with $ 4 billion. Ba Ria-Vung Tau province followed with 1.9 billion USD and Ho Chi Minh City ranked third with 1.31 billion USD, followed by Hanoi, Ha Nam and Binh Duong provinces.

Exports of foreign-invested sector increased by 1.5% compared to last year to 55.75 billion USD, accounting for 69.3% of the country’s four-month export value. Meanwhile, the industry’s import value also increased by 3% to 46.32 billion USD, accounting for 58% of import volume nationwide.

Despite the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, this sector has reached a trade surplus of US $ 10.2 billion, according to the FIA.

Research from Standard Chartered predicts that FDI inflows will fall below $ 10 billion this year, with downside risks if virus worries continue within the last half of this year.

Construction activity is likely to decline due to subdued sentiment and declining FDI. Export growth is probably going to slow thanks to lower global demand while import growth can also be moderate with slower growth, keeping the balance of trade in surplus in 2020.

Source: VNS

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Sunday, April 26, 2020

[NEWS] Vietnam takes first steps to restart economy

Vietnam takes first steps to restart economy

Vietnam has flattened its coronavirus infection curve with a sledgehammer, and after some initial success, it has now begun to reopen its economy.

Zero Deaths from conoravirus

With only 270 confirmed cases and no official virus-related deaths, Vietnam is loosening its lockdown rules in most countries, allowing some businesses to reopen.

There are some skeptics about the low number of infections, due to limited testing in the population: As of April 21, Vietnam tested about 1,881 per million people, compared with about 7,500 in Singapore. However, Vietnam’s approach has won praise from agencies such as the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, and its outbreak is in contrast to Singapore and Indonesia is nearby, where restrictions are being extended as cases continue to spike.

Fred Vietnam has had to deal with SARS, bird flu and various financial crises, said Fred Burke, managing partner at the law firm Baker McKenzie in Ho Chi Minh City, advising the government on foreign investment rules. They have learned that they need to act quickly and thoroughly. This country is very suitable for restoration back.

Trade-War Winner

Vietnam has been a favorite location for foreign investors seeking an alternative manufacturing center for China after escalating trade tensions between the United States and the world’s second largest economy.

Government goals are now being built on that momentum. According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, committed to foreign direct investment rose 7.2% last year, with $ 24.6 billion flowing into production. That helped boost economic growth to 7.02%, the second fastest pace since 2007.

The impact of the virus on China – considered by many foreign companies to be increasingly expensive with an aging population – makes Vietnam look more attractive to businesses, A survey of some group members said they are still reassessing their position in China – Vu Tu Thanh, senior Vietnam representative of the US-Asean Business Council said.

Risks Remain

Japan, Vietnam’s second largest investor in the first quarter with $ 848 million, announced earlier this month that it set aside $ 2.2 billion for the stimulus package to encourage investors. Production moved production out of China. Vietnam will certainly benefit, said Burke, who has been a member of a government council advising on foreign investment administrative reforms.

To be sure, Vietnam is still not out of the forest. Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam, chairman of the National Steering Committee for the Prevention and Control of Coronav Virus, warned the country still has a big risk of outbreaks.

It must also prepare for a sustained decline in global demand, with months before factories can start strengthening orders for everything from Nike Inc. shoes. to LG Electronics Inc. home appliances.

According to World Bank data, Vietnam relies heavily on exports – accounting for more than 100% of GDP, which means growth had a push in the first quarter, slowing down to 3.82%. The international monetary fund is expected to weaken by 2.7% for the whole year.

The easing of restrictions does not mean life will return to normal.

For starters, lockout isn’t fully lifted, says Gareth Leather, an economist at Capital econom Ltd. in London, who predicted the contraction of GDP this year. Immediately, the others won back to their pre-crisis habit. The fear of being infected with the virus means that people will continue to practice away from society for a while.

The cost for many residents of the nation’s 96 million people is illustrated by a kilometer-long queue at free ATMs ATM – a semi-automatic distribution center that provides free rice to laid-off and laid-off workers waste.

The government believes that its serious actions to reduce viruses have finally saved the economy from more pain. While factories wait for global demand to return, the country’s domestic economy will begin to revive, said Adam McCarty, chief economist of the Mekong Economics in Hanoi.

How Vietnam has treated this virus is signaling to the rest of the world that it is no longer a developing country, he said. They reported that they had a profound flair in the way they handled problems

Source: VNI

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Wednesday, April 8, 2020

[Assumptions] Scenarios of economic recovery in Vietnam after the Covid-19 pandemic

Assumptions about Scenarios of economic recovery in Vietnam after the Covid-19 pandemic

Assuming the magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnam’s economic growth will depend on how long it is possible to control the disease, the degree of disruption to production, and the decrease in consumption demand of market. This pandemic will have the worst impact on services, industry and construction, with less severe impacts on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.

There are three scenarios for Vietnam’s GDP growth in the coming quarters, When the disease is under control, it is assumed that:

  • The Best scenario: The pandemic will end in QII/20, and business activities will return to normal in QIII/20.

the best scenario economic-recovery after Covid-19

  • The Normal scenario: Pandemic will end in QIII/20., and business activities will return to normal in QIV/20.

the normal scenario economic-recovery after Covid-19

  • The Worst scenario: Pandemic will end in QIV/20., and business activities will return to normal in QI/21.
the worst scenario economic-recovery after Covid-19
Vietnam’s GDP growth in 3 scenarios:

gdp growth in 2020 in scenarious

Regarding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on industries, the COVID-19 disease estimate will severely disrupt business activities in industry and construction, and services, compared to other industries, at 5% in the first quarter, and 10% in the following quarters. The epidemic will also have a negative impact on agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, but to a less serious extent, the reduction could be 2% in Q1 and 5% in subsequent quarters.
It is assumed that the government will support affected businesses after the epidemic ends, with an estimated support level of 5%.

These assumptions are for reference only
and cannot be used to prove
or commit for actual reporting and development

Source: KIS

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Tuesday, April 7, 2020

[Research] The Impact of Covid-19 on Economic Sectors

the impact of covid19-look-office

1. Pharmaceutical products:
• Enterprises in the pharmaceutical industry are expected to benefit when the demand of the people increases.
• The industry’s raw material supply may be affected by 80-90% of raw materials must be imported, mainly from China and India.

2. Aviation:
• Enterprises in the aviation industry are negatively affected by the sharp decline in passengers.
• However, after the end of the epidemic, the aviation industry is expected to benefit from low oil prices, stimulus packages from the government and strong demand for travel.

3. Bank
In addition to reducing lending rates, service fee exemptions and low credit growth affecting short-term profits, banks will also face the risk of rising bad debts in the medium and long term. term.

4. Real Estate
• Real estate industry is negatively affected by declining demand for office space, resort real estate and condotel.
• In the medium and long term, an oversupply of real estate in many segments is likely to occur.

5. Electrification
• Electricity businesses benefit from falling oil prices.
• Prospects of the electricity industry are evaluated positively due to strong growth in demand.

6. Seaport
• Export activities to China are negatively affected by slowing consumption.
• Port industry prospect is assessed negatively due to oversupply and reduced demand for commercial activities worldwide.

7. Rubber
• The covid-19 epidemic negatively affected the demand for rubber import from China, the largest rubber import market of Vietnam, accounting for over 60% of the proportion.
• While export activities face difficulties, the prospect of rubber industry comes from liquidation of rubber trees and industrial park real estate development.

8. Consumption
• Sales at retail stores may be reduced due to people restricting access to public places to avoid the possibility of infection. However, online shopping, delivery, and delivery activities may increase.
• The medium and long-term prospect of the retail industry is forecasted to be positive, benefiting from the rise of the middle class and rising demand.

9. Seafood
• The Covid-19 epidemic caused disruption of seafood exports to China, one of Vietnam’s main seafood import markets.
• Positive prospects from new generation FTAs ​​such as CPTPP and EVFTA.

10. Textile
• The industry’s raw material supply is affected by still having to import nearly 90% of fabrics from China, Taiwan, Korea and 80% of fibers from the US, West Africa, and India.
• Positive prospects from new generation FTAs ​​such as CPTPP and EVFTA.

11. Steel
• The Covid-19 epidemic has an impact on the steel industry in both production and consumption. Regarding production, prices of some steelmaking materials have tended to increase due to limited supply from China, such as coke, iron ore, electrode coal, refractory bricks … Regarding consumption, many construction works. At home and abroad, the use of steel is stagnant, causing the demand for steel to decline.
• After the Covid-19 epidemic, steel enterprises will face high inventory levels, and the pressure to compete with cheap Chinese steel will flood the post-COVID-19 epidemic.

12. Petroleum
• The oil and gas industry has to cope with the dual effects of the Covid-19 epidemic and the decline in oil prices.
• Oil and gas industry prospect is assessed to be negative due to the impact of the world economic growth slowing down. However, we still leave the possibility of a sharp increase in oil prices thanks to OPEC reaching an agreement to cut production or occurrence of force majeure events such as the oil plant in Saudi Arabia was attacked, or impulsive. Suddenly the US-Iran escalates.

13. Securities
• The sharp drop in stock prices during the Covid-19 epidemic could cause securities companies to experience a decline in revenue and profits, as well as increase the risk of margin lending activities. However, after the epidemic is under control, stock prices are forecast to recover strongly.
• The prospect of the securities industry is assessed to be neutral in the medium and long term due to fierce competition between domestic securities companies and foreign securities companies, superior in size and financial potential, in The context of the stock market continues unpredictably.

14. Insurance

Insurance enterprises may have to increase their compensation costs if the Covid-19 epidemic is widespread. Meanwhile, low Government bond interest rates negatively impacted on the industry profit.

15. Cement
• Covid-19 epidemic caused cement consumption in the domestic market as well as export markets, especially the Chinese market, to plummet.
• Prospects for the cement industry are evaluated as neutral due to low demand for growth. In particular, the construction of infrastructure is slowly implemented, real estate shows signs of slowing down, and residential construction increases slightly.

16. Travel
• The tourism service industry is greatly affected by the declining number of tourists in two major markets, China and South Korea. Specifically, in February, the number of Chinese and Korean tourists to Vietnam decreased by 62% and 16% respectively.
• Tourism industry is expected to recover strongly after the virus is controlled.

17. Cars
Covid-19 epidemic not only reduced the number of customers coming to dealers, but also negatively affected the domestic automobile industry due to the shortage of spare parts. In 2019, Vietnam imported nearly US $ 4 billion of auto parts, of which nearly 18% from China and approximately 29% from South Korea. As for truck manufacture, more than 70% of spare parts are imported from China.

Source: Aseansc

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